The Bloomberg Theory

Do we all know that Bloomberg left the Republican Party today?

Well, here's my theory. I don't think the 2008 election is going to be about the Dems and Repugs and an Independent, be it Bloomberg or otherwise.

I think it's going to be the Dems and the Repugs and two Independents.

I think Hilary will win the Democratic nomination, and we all know what that'll mean, good and bad, for the political process and for the nation.

I think Rudy or Mitt will win the Repug nomination, though not easily and not without a lot of nasty bloodletting and intraparty bruising. Especially if Rudy wins the nod, although not unlikely if Mitt does, I think the far right will bolt the party.

Meanwhile, once it's clear who the Dems and Repugs nominate, I think it's entirely possible that Bloomberg will get in, and even though he's pretty conservative, I think a Bloomberg/Hagel ticket would be pretty amazing -- and would divide the Dems and the Reps as well as attract the to-the-hell-with-everyone vote, a la Perot and, to a lesser extent, that evil Nader.

But remember, I said the far right would bolt. Look for the far right to put up a candidate of its own as an independent candidate -- perhaps under the auspices of the same Independence party that Perot ran under. Who would be the standard bearer? Bizarre choices, frankly, like Tom Tancredo or maybe even Ron Paul.

So it would be, for the first time since 1968, a real four way race. In 1968, that four way race gave us Nixon. Prior to that, there was a four way race in 1948, and that gave us Truman.

Any thoughts?

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